The Strategist

How bad is swine flu?

5850 out of 50,182,850.

There are many ways to die, and swine flu is least among them.

Via Coming Anarchy.

Angles of war

Here's an excellent photo collection - Sean Power's photographs of British soldiers in Helmand, Afghanistan.

Power works unusual angles to good effect: looking up at subjects from a crouching or prone position, or looking down into scenes. He's unobtrusive, getting close to the soldiers without getting in their faces.

The first shot, of a small group of soldiers resting at the end of an operation, is striking. Not just because of the photo's composition, colours and texture. But also because the picture tells you something about these men and their esprit de corps. Even when they are resting, they stick together, in a circle, facing each other. They are a tight-knit team.

How do you get more people cycling?

I love cycling to and from work. It's free. It's clean. It's faster than the car or bus. And it's a great workout. No need for expensive gym fees.

But in New Zealand, most people don't see cycling as a viable way of getting to work. Cycling makes up about 1% of all trips. Twenty years ago it was 3.6%. Most New Zealanders get to and from work by car, usually one person to a car. By contrast, in some northern European countries 20 to 30% of trips are made by bike.

This is pretty appalling for a country that markets itself to the outside world as being clean and green - "100% pure". And pretty appalling for a people who pride themselves on being fit, rugged and outdoorsy types. This is bullshit, of course. Most of us are indoorsy - we spend our days inside homes, offices, cafes, cars and gyms.

The New Zealand government wants to increase cycling and walking to 30% of total trips in urban areas by 2040. There's fat chance of this happening unless central government and local authorities make a sustained investment in cycling facilities, like networks of bike lanes (proper lanes, that is, separated from the road), kerbside bike racks, and roads where cyclists and walkers get priority over cars.

Cyclists have to play their part too. There's nothing more off-putting than seeing cyclists with hairy white legs, riding along in tight lycra shorts, bright reflective jackets and cheap crappy helmets.

For cyclists, the following should be de rigueur: fit and tanned bodies, slick bikes, snappy gear, and cool shades. If we want more people to cycle, then we have to make it cool, stylish and fun.

On the bullshit of "generations of war"

In this essay in Armed Forces Journal (h/t Ubiwar), William F Owen attacks folk who invent fancy new words to describe existing aspects of conflict...

Thus the forces we used to call guerrillas are now “hybrid threats.” Insurgencies are now “complex” and require “complex and adaptive” solutions. Jungles and cities are now “complex terrain.”

My pet hate, when it comes to such "buzzwords and bumber stickers", is "4GW".

4GW is one of the four so-called generations of warfare, a concept invented up by William S Lind and others in 1989:

• 1st generation involves line and column tactics of the musket era, e.g., the Battle of Waterloo during the Napoleonic Wars.

• 2nd generation involves tactics of linear fire and movement, e.g., the battles on the Western Front during World War One.

• 3rd generation involves using surprise, speed, manoeuvre and depth to attack or defend, e.g., the German blitzkrieg in 1940.

• 4th generation involves warfare between a state and a non-state entity, in which the non-state force avoids conventional combat and uses terrorism, guerrilla tactics etc to overthrow an opponent, e.g., the Viet Cong in South Vietnam.

When I first came across the term 4GW it annoyed the hell out of me. Partly because it suggests a progression which has no basis in history. Partly because any war can involve elements of all generations - Napoleon's campaigns, for instance, or the recent Sri Lankan civil war. Partly because it ignores wars that were fought before the 18th century. And partly because it is dreadfully Eurocentric.

I also found it confusing. 4GW seemed to be about familiar concepts: insurgency, terrorism, guerrilla warfare, rebellion, civil war. But it sounded so fancy, so Zen, that I felt there had to be more to it. After a while I realized that there isn't anything more to it. It's a classic example of obfuscation, a new, confusing and bullshit way of describing things that are already clearly and precisely named.

A simple question - WTF?

Memo to Afghanistan watchers: read this article about a British army bomb disposal expert who was blown up in Helmand. If you're anything like me, you'll have yet another of those "what the f--- are we doing here?" moments.

If this was Northern Ireland or the Mexican border - some place, in other words, where Britain and America have direct security interests - you could rationalize the extreme risks encountered by infantrymen, engineers and bomb disposal technicians.

But this is Afghanistan. And despite the myriad articles, editorials, op-eds, blog posts, policy papers, presentations, speeches and debates that spew forth on the subject, I've yet to see anyone put up a convincing case for exposing men and women like Olaf Schmid to such dangers. And for committing hundreds of thousands of troops to a counterinsurgency in one of the most hostile, isolated and strategically irrelevant parts of the world.

Stephenson on the singularity and other subjects

Check out this Q&A between sci-fi writer Neal Stephenson and Slashdot readers (h/t Ubiwar). It ranges over topics like 'Beowulf' and 'Dante' writers, new publishing models, hacking tools as weapons, and the singularity...

"I can never get past the structural similarities between the singularity prediction and the apocalypse of St. John the Divine....the key thing they have in common is the idea of a rapture, in which some chosen humans will be taken up and made one with the infinite while others will be left behind."

Stephenson's advice on travel is worth considering...

"The best 'self-defense means' when you are surrounded by a hundred million people of some other culture is to avoid dangerous places and figure out some way to get along with the folks around you."

This also sounds like a sensible approach to national security.

Putting the kybosh on Project Hayes

I like wind farms. But the Environment Court was right to put the kybosh on Project Hayes.

Meridian Energy wanted to put 176 wind turbines on the wild and remote Lammermoor Range in Central Otago, New Zealand. If the project had gone ahead, it would've generated 630 MW of clean electricity. It would also have damaged the local environment and spoiled the look of the tussock-clad range.

We need more wind farms, along with solar plants, to make use of a renewable resource, to generate clean electricity, and to reduce carbon emissions by replacing dirty energy with clean. Just not at any cost. Wind farms involve the industrialization of a landscape. That's ok when the landscape is already industrialized or otherwise heavily modified by man - what are called 'brownfield' sites. Meridian's Project West Wind, a wind farm in the hills behind Wellington, NZ, is located in an area that is intensively farmed and criss-crossed with grid transmission lines.

But it's not ok when we're talking about wild and unspoiled landscapes. In the industrialized world there aren't that many left, and those that remain should be left alone. Instead, we need to make better use of the many brownfield sites that surround our cities and towns.

Simon Mann, mercenary - the movie

Sounds like mercenary Simon Mann wasn't treated too harshly during his 15 months jail time in Equatorial Guinea's notorious Black Beach prison...

"Mann has said he 'felt like a guest … and not like a prisoner ... and there were reports he dined on wine, chicken, steak and vegetables brought in from a nearby restaurant."

"He had his own cell, exercise machine and books and was allowed regular calls home. He often had lunch with ... the Security Minister, who would bring food and wine from his hotel..."

I can't wait to see the movie. But they're gonna have to jazz it up a bit. Actually, a lot. Eating steak, sipping wine and reading Dumas's The Count of Monte Cristo just won't cut it.

So, here's a couple of ideas for enhancing the plot...

Early on, prison thugs try to make Mann their bitch. He fights back with improvised weapons. That's where the steak knives and wine glasses come in handy. Along the way, Mann uses his accountancy skills to expose the money swindling scheme of the prison governor.

Later, Mann hatches a daring escape plan. It involves a wooden horse, tunnelling under the wire, and a motorbike jump to freedom. The prisoners break out but after a gunfight are recaptured. They're about to be shot when the presidential pardon comes through.

Still feels light, though. Any more ideas?

Regeneration 5 - the wild coast

Wellington's south coast is the city's rampart on a rough stretch of ocean - the Cook Strait. Blasted by ocean winds, pounded by stormy seas, the south coast is an epic landscape of high cliffs and hills, jagged crags and islands, and sweeping vistas of sea and mountains. Many ships have been wrecked in the south coast's wild weather and on its rocky shores and reefs.

Since European settlers arrived in 1840, the south coast has been extensively modified, urbanized and polluted. The native forest was largely chopped down for grazing land. Big earthworks, like Wellington airport, the Owhiro Bay quarry and the Palmer Head fortifications, gouged great chunks out of the land. For many years the city's sewerage ran untreated into the waters off Moa Point (which locals nicknamed 'Poo Point'). And suburbs have spread over the headlands and ridges, from Breaker Bay in the east to Owhiro Bay in the west.

For all that, the south coast retains its wildness. You don't just live on the south coast. Sometimes, in the teeth of a southerly storm, it can feel like you're just hanging on, like the creatures that struggle to survive in the rock pools and crevices between the high and low tide marks.

Recently there have been big efforts to regenerate the south coast and heighten its wild feel. At Moa Point, the discharge of raw sewerage ended when a modern treatment plant was built. Further along the coast, past Owhiro Bay, the quarry was closed and the hills and shore left to return to their natural state. And last year the Taputeranga marine reserve was created off the south coast - this will allow the once rich marine life to regenerate.

The photo below shows the cliffs of the old quarry site, on the way to the seal colony at Rimurapa (Sinclair Head). The sheer size of these cliffs always astonishes me. If you look closely, in the bottom right of the picture, you can see four people walking along the foreshore.

They are as ants.

Mercenary dealt a get out of jail card

What skulduggery went on behind the scenes to secure mercenary Simon Mann's release?

Mann has been freed from a jail in Equatorial Guinea, one year into a 34 year prison sentence. Last year he was jailed for masterminding, if that's the right word, a failed coup d'état in the oil-rich West African state. Think Frederick Forsyth's The Dogs of War, minus the altruistic motives and sound planning and execution.

I wonder how long it is before the exclusive article, book and movie come out? These should give Mann some recompense for languishing for five years in African jails, and missing out on his fee for the coup, rumoured to be £10m plus double the expenses.

Slideshow - "Guns of Wellington": Palmer Head fortress

I'm working on an extended photo essay called "The Guns of Wellington", on what remains of Wellington's once extensive network of coastal defences.

Here's a slideshow of the old coastal artillery fortifications at Palmer Head. The slides are best viewed in full screen - click the button on the bottom right of the screen. You can also view the photos and captions on my flickr site.

The fortress was situated on a windswept headland overlooking Cook Strait. During World War Two three 6" guns were located there, manned by the 10th Heavy (Coast) Regiment of the New Zealand army.

As well as the three guns, which were mounted in concrete emplacements, the fortress also consisted of command posts, searchlights, underground plotting and wireless rooms and access tunnels, an engine room, barracks, and a radar station. Three forward observation posts, located at Sinclair Head, Baring Head and Beacon Hill, were part of the defences.

Most of the fortifications were demolished after the war: the radar station is only one of two structures that remain above ground. As you'll see in the slides, regenerating coastal forest and scrub has reclaimed what was once a heavily fortified area.  

Prisoners in life

Stoics believe that it's important to play one's part in life well, whatever your situation. "Remember that you are an actor in a play," said Epictetus in the Enchiridion, "the nature of which is up to the director to decide."

"If he wants the play to be short, it will be short, if he wants it long, it will be long. And if he casts you as one of the poor, or as a cripple, as a king or as a commoner - whatever role is assigned, the accomplished actor will accept and perform it with impartial skill."

Kate Carruthers alerted me to the story of June Middleton, an Australian woman who played her part in life well. Ms Middleton, who died on Friday, caught polio when she was 22 years old. Paralyzed, she spent the rest of her life, over 60 years, in an iron lung.

"It's hard to explain but it's what you gotta do, make the most of it, get over the obstacles on the way," Ms Middleton said.

"You realise that things are not going to improve so you have to get your act together and... make the most of it and get on with what you've got instead of being miserable about things."

Seneca wrote that "no one can be held a prisoner in life" (Letters XII). I don't know if Ms Middleton knew of Stocism. But what she said and, more importantly, what she did, is a pure and inspiring expression of Stoic thought and action.

On the myth of natural-born soldiers

In a review of John Laffin's Jackboot, a history of the German soldier, Cousin Dampier asks "can a nation-state be a warrior-state, and can the people of a nation be summarily cast in their entirety as natural-born soldiers?"

The idea that certain peoples or races are natural soldiers is widespread and longstanding. Laffin considered that "The German, every German, is a born soldier".

During two world wars, New Zealand, Australia and Canada provided the British empire with many of its elite infantry formations. These colonials, from largely agarian societies, believed that they were natural soldiers, of hardier stock than their British kin. Frontier societies, like the 18th century American colonies and the 19th century Boer republics, prided themselves on breeding irregular bush fighters who were tougher, smarter and better shots than European troops.

And in the 19th century, many British believed in the 'martial races' concept. This held that the best recruits for the Indian army came from ostensibly hardy and warlike ethnic groups: Sikhs, Nepalese, Jats, Dogras, Pathans and Rajputs.

I don't believe that any people can be considered as natural soldiers. At some stage, a nation will exist in an epoch of warfare, and generations of young men will serve in the armed forces and fight and die. Myths - a nation of soldiers, a warrior people - will evolve to condition individuals for military service and to sustain the society in war. When the epoch passes, the myths lose their utility and fade.

Ironically, there's no better example of this than Germany. Writing in 1965, Laffin believed that

"No, the Germans are not finished with war. For every German, peace is a suspension of the state of war. The German breathes war, he is imbued with it, he glorifies it."

After a century of German aggression against other nations, many would have agreed with him. Almost 45 years on, you'd struggle to find a less bellicose nation or people in Europe.

It's all over, rover - the end of the Marsupian invasion

 
Death throes of a Marsupian tripod (Henrique Alvim Corrêa).

Last night the sky was ominous and full of dire portents. I went to bed fearing where the Marsupian invaders might strike next, convinced that our feeble technology was no match for their awesome power, and bitterly regretting that we'd ignored George W Bush's prescient warning.

This morning I woke to news that the Marsupians have been wiped out by the H1N1 virus. In North America, the terrifying tripods lie collapsed in the streets. The rotting corpses of Marsupian soldiers litter the sidewalks. Apparently, for all their mighty death rays, black gas, and machines that could cross the depths of space, the alien invaders were no match for a tiny virus.

I never thought I'd say this, but hail the swine flu.

The Marsupian threat - President Bush was right!

Remember the Axis of Evil? It now has a fourth member - Mars.

Speaking from his home in Texas, where he is supervising the writing of his memoirs, former US President George W Bush called for a "War on Extraterrestrial Invasion".

"Everyone laughed at me when I warned about the Marsupian threat", said the former president. "They said the chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one. But still they come".

 

Martian invasion - Kiwi soldiers stand ready to repel attack

 

Martian invasion - New Zealanders gird their loins

So far, the aliens have been laying waste to the US. But even here, in far-flung New Zealand, we've been gearing up for a Martian assault.

Only minutes ago I watched as troops in trucks and APCs pulled up at the old Palmer Head radar station, on Wellington's south coast, and started frantically refurbishing it...

Wild rumours confirmed - it's an alien invasion!!!

Martians! Across an immense imperial gulf the Martians have launched a surprise attack on Earth.

Here's footage of the fighting in what was once Washington DC, now re-named City 17 by the merciless Martians (h/t Armchair Generalist)...

Obama down? McCain in the kitchen...

Holy crap! Unconfirmed reports suggest that President Obama may be KIA in the chaos of what was once Washington DC.

Praise the Lord, it's good to hear that Senator John McCain is ready to take command. Here's a shot of him cooking up victuals for the brave boys who are battling the invading hordes. But he may soon be called upon for sterner duty.

First pictures of the invaders...

This from the Armchair Generalist, who's also caught up in the invasion of the US - first piccies of the invaders.

I was sure that the invaders were al-Qaeda and the Taliban. That's what we all feared, right?

But these dudes don't look like any Islamo-fascists. North Koreans??

From the invasion's epicentre...

Travels with Shiloh is live-blogging what looks to be a full-on attack on the eastern US. He's right at the epicentre of the invasion, in New Jersey. Here's a clip of combat footage. Like I said, the invaders have fearsome technology - check out the death ray on the attack tripod, and the way it uses its feet, I mean legs, to pulverize puny humans and their buildings.

Boy, was I wrong about the F-22 Raptor...

Newsflash - reports of intense ground combat and cities on fire

WTF??

MY heart is pounding as I tap this out, but there seems to be real bad shit going down on the east coast of the United States.

Reports are flooding in of catastrophic meteorite strikes in Grovers Mill, New Jersey, and Silver Springs, Maryland. Of an invasion. Of intense ground fighting between American forces and death-dealing tripod machines. Of cities on fire. Of thousands of people trying to flee the killing grounds.

I don't know what the hell's going on, but one thing's certain. Those invaders, whoever, whatever they are, have lethal technology at their disposal...

Some ideas on simplicity in action

Here are several interesting ideas that illustrate simplicity in action:

• Kate Rew goes wild swimming, in streams, rivers, lakes and the sea instead of the chlorinated pool.

• Mark Boyle writes about living without cash for a year.

• Researchers suggest that if you want to lose weight, get on your bike.
  

Boyle wrote that to get around "I had a bike and trailer, and the 34-mile commute to the city doubled up as my gym subscription".

This made me chuckle. I'm pursuing my own year long challenge: cutting right back on using the car, and getting about on my own too feet. It's going well. In the last five days, for example, I've only used my legs (mostly cycling) to get to and from work, and have used the car just once, on a five kilometre trip.

Things were very different 12 years ago. I'd finish work in the city, catch the bus home, then jump into the car and drive back into the city to go to the gym. It sounds crazy, but at the time I couldn't see how absurd this was.

How America won the Crusades and brought home the Holy Grail

H/T Will de Cleene...

   

What would you do? Split or steal?

Here's a simplified but fascinating version of the "prisoner's dilemma" problem of game theory. It's applied to a British game show where big money is up for grabs.

In the classic prisoner's dilemma, two prisoners are separately interrogated about a crime they both committed. The prisoners can't talk with each other. If both prisoners stay silent, the authorities have little evidence and can only give each prisoner a light sentence. If one prisoner squeals ("defects") while the other stays silent, the defector goes free while the other gets serious jail time. If both betray each other, they get jailed, but with reduced sentences.

In this situation, the rational response is for each prisoner to defect - in isolation, you just don't know what the other person will do.

But in the game show version, both contestants can talk with each other and, in theory, strike a deal. So what's the best strategy? Split - equivalent to staying silent in the classic game? Or steal - equivalent to defecting?

To me it's steal (defect). Either way you can't lose. If you steal but the other splits, you win the money. If you steal and the other steals, both contestants leave empty-handed, but you've lost nothing.

Splitting only makes sense if you've agreed to cooperate and you trust your opponent. But how likely is that in a situaton where the contestants are greedy and where big money is at stake?