Kevin Rudd and the 'Arc of Instability'

Australian troops and police in Honiara, Solomon Islands, April 2006.

In a recent speech on Australia's national security policy, Australian Labor Party leader Kevin Rudd made several interesting observations about Australia's strategic situation in the 'Arc of Instability'. This is the island chain to Australia's north - its 'immediate neighbourhood' - stretching from Indonesia through New Guinea to the islands of Melanesia.

Rudd painted a bleak future for the Arc - a zone of failed or failing states, corrupt governments, political and ethnic violence, poverty and pandemics. He identified the situations in East Timor, Solomon Islands and Fiji as precarious:

Fiji is of major concern given unresolved political tensions, the disposition of the police and the armed forces, and the relative density of the urban population.

In Rudd's view, Australia's strategic interests in the Arc have "deteriorated sharply over the last decade", with the prospect of more failed states and a strategic vacuum filled by outside powers. Unless something is done urgently, the cost to Australia will be high - in dollars (the cost of military interventions and humanitarian assistance), public health risks, and waves of refugees. 

This is an attempt by Rudd to paint the Coalition government as crisis-driven - responding to Pacific instability with a 'send in the troops' knee-jerk reaction. But it also reflects a view that unrest is a symptom of a deep-seated malaise in Pacific societies. States 'fail' because they are poorly governed by corrupt politicians. Disorder occurs because there is no 'economic growth' that provides people with jobs and prospects.

Seen from this perspective, sending in troops is like sticking a band-aid on a weeping wound. In a crisis, soldiers temporarily restore order but cannot address the underlying problems. As Professor High White, head of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, recently commented:

Australia hasn't yet found what else you send apart from the army to try and address those deeper political, social, economic problems that are the real root of the issue.

Rudd's answer, announced in the speech, is a 'Pacific Partnership for Development and Security'. This is a genuinely big idea, which would involve a large and long-term Australian commitment to rebuild the "economic and social infrastructure" of Pacific countries and address the root causes of instability.

It's also an interesting idea, because it echoes the findings of a recent British study of the Northern Ireland conflict. As I noted in 'Counterinsurgency lessons from Northern Ireland', the study suggests that there

is a need to identify situations which could lead to insurgency or civil war, and take "early, substantive, visible" action to address root political, social, economic and religious problems.

Would the 'Pacific Partnership for Development and Security' work? I'll analyse this question in a subsequent post.

Comments

[Jeff]

I look forward to your analysis. The more I read about the Arc of Instability, the more I see just how solid Ferguson's argument for liberal Empire is.

[Peter]

Thanks Jeff. I think the task facing the Australians - and New Zealanders too if we would only get real about the region - is unenviable.

[Exkiwiforces]

I'm afraid the horse may have already bolted in some counties.
As the MO said last yr pior to going back into East Timor during our Medical briefs "Prevention is the best form of a cure" ie its cheaper than throwing money at trying to find cure.
Now Australia is seeing as the local cop or local bully and NZ still wants to stick to the Pacific Way (Talk and throw money at it).
They both need to wake up and take action before someone else steps in rapes the place and used it as dumping ground for cheap its goods etc as already doing it in parts of Africa at the moment.

[Peter]

I completely agree, and would suggest that 'raping and pillaging' is already happening, e.g., Solomon Islands, PNG.

One of the problems I have with Rudd's plan, which I'll analyse later, is that it calls for Canberra to negotiate "partnerhips" agreements with the governments of Pacific island countries. In other words, a large number of bureaucrats will spend several years talking with their counterparts in Port Moresby, Honiara etc, to ultimately arrive at agreements that will be unenforceable and difficult to audit.

[Exkiwiforces]

I was reading a artclie in the Australian Newspaper that a Chinese mining company a couple mths ago tried to import its own work force in WA. The State government, the unions and the indigenous communities put a stop to this as u can import 10- 15% of your total work force.This is the same tactics that Chinese are doing Africa, PNG and in a couple of other counties in the region.

When I was E.T (Dili Airport)last yr the Chinese did a NOE for it nationals. They were at same time doing covert/ overt intell gathering ops on any ADF,NZ assets and from what the boys from the solomon's said they did same thing again in the Solomon's. Mind you they weren't the only ones doing it, but a friend (I did case work etc) who is NZ MP in govt at xmas time said the Chinese and 2 other lesser nations are starting to give Aus and NZ govt's a few headache's with their dealings in the SW Pacific.

Rudds idea sounds like going back to the "Pacific Way" It needs to be carrot and stick approach with Aus/NZ doing alot more flag waving with it Navies and Airforces. As u said talking around a table is not going to get anywhere and again we need to act now before it goes pear shape.

[strategist]

The Chinese move into the Pacific is a worry.

I think there's a real security role for the ADF and the NZDF to play in the South Pacific that goes beyond the crisis intervention that we have seen. This is something I have referred to in earlier posts on the Pacific - actively protecting Pacific states against the non-state threats to island stability, e.g., Asian loggers, fishing fleets, criminals etc. To me it is ridiculous that, in Solomon Islands for example, Australia and NZ have allowed some crooks in government to sell Solomons forests to Asian logging companies - depriving the Solomons people of their livelihood for a fast buck.

As you say, more ships and planes aggressively patrolling Pacific waters and islands would serve as a good deterrent.

[Exkiwiforces]

Yes China is a worry but Taiwan and Japan are not making it any better. Whenever Taiwan, Japan turn up u can bet your bottom dollar China is not to far behind or vice versa.

I can't understand whats going on in the Solomon's either with the logging and the fishing etc. The Pollies in PNG are just as bad to what they are doing to their own country and thats why they don't want us to going in there to fix it up.

I wasn't intending aggressive patrolling Aus/NZ Forces more akin to what the French do in the region, Brits and Dutch do in the West Indies or the RN's Armilla Ptl in the gulf. Also work in conjunction with AUS Aid/ NZ Aid on aid projects and we must also eliminate the cargo mentality but that comes with effective government.(Like East Timor at moment)