Rule the Waves

Sudha Ramachandran reports that India's aircraft carrier construction programme is running behind schedule. Currently, India has one operational carrier, INS Viraat (up until 1997, when INS Vikrant was decommissioned, it had two). A second carrier, an ex-Russian vessel, is being refurbished and is due to enter service in 2009, delayed by two years. A third carrier is being built in India, and will probably be commissioned in 2015, three years late. Finally, another Indian-built carrier is on the books, with a possible completion date in 2017.

What interested me, as I read Ramachandran's article, was not the delay to the commissioning programme. I was struck by the fact that India has operated aircraft carriers since 1961 (China has yet to commission one), and that India is building its own aircraft carrier (China has yet to start, although it has been working on a design).

But mostly, I was impressed by the scale of India's ambition, which is to have three modern carrier battle groups up and running by the end of the next decade. The question is, what's it all for?

Comments

[Jeff]

"The question is, what's it all for?"

The answer: They want Superpower status. They also recognize the growing security threats in their region and the rise of China. They want leverage.

[subadei]

I agree with Jeff. The combination of nuke capability and the reach of Naval capability present the visage of empowered (but not Super Power) state and divide them from their rival, Pakistan.

I have to wonder if India's resolve in modernizing it's military has more to do with the awkward relationships the US maintains with both Pakistan and India? Perhaps India envisions a future in which the US steps back from their alliance with Pakistan and the Paki military fills said support vacuum with various currently disaffected tribes? Imagine the WOT as the largest distraction from traditional tension between India and Pakistan. Now imagine US support of Pakistan's military/governance structure suddenly gone (should Musharref fall, perhaps.)

Just tossing some ideas around.

[Ortho]

The Indian government is wasting its resources. Aircraft carriers will be of little use in a fifth-generation war. India and it's military mistakenly believe that the only imminent threat toward their nation is third-generation war between another nation states. This is mistaken belief will have deadly consequences.

[strategist]

I'm going to venture another view, and say that aircraft carriers will be of little use (unless they are nuclear powered) as peak oil impacts on the world's economy. Unless countries like China and India can lock in vast oil supplies (and hence the unseemly speculative scramble to stake claims to Arctic sea floor), aircraft carrier battle groups won't be able to venture much beyond home waters.

[Exkiwiforces]

I think u guys have seem to forget that India in smack in the middle of two major shipping choke points the Malacca Straits and the Straits of Hormuz.
The Chinese is poking its nose around the sub continent which has given the Indians the willys but in saying that the Chinese are complaining about a major Indian Navy Ex schedule for early Sept (Janes Defence 22Aug)because the most of the regions Navies are taking part.

[strategist]

Related to that is the fact the India sits astride a major oil supply line from the Middle East to China and Japan, and that as competition for oil heats up we could see China and Japan project power into the Indian Ocean. If I was in the Indian government, I'd be very keen to ensure that India has the ability to control the Indian Ocean, rather than cede control to the PLAN.

[Adrian]

Perhaps India is planning for the contingency in which the US is either unable or unwilling to safeguard oil supplies coming through the straights of Hormuz. Also China seems to be planning on building up its Navy - perhaps this is the beginning of an arms race.

"India's aircraft carrier construction programme is running behind schedule."

I would imagine most capital ships are finished behind schedule...

[Peter]

That's an interesting point, Adrian. India potentially occupies a pivotal position, and one which China would find difficult to challenge, due to the distance over which it would need to project power.

That said, the way the Chinese are establishing a 'commercial' presence at points along the northern littoral of the Indian Ocean must give India great cause for concern.

[Exkiwiforces]

My concern with PLAN is growth in SSN's, SSBN subs which going to give them more punch and reach than there Surface battle fleet at moment which is still a brown navy.
I believe they still a long off from a carrier battle group (10-15ys) but in saying that they have repainted the Varyag, starting to fit it out as for the other Ex USSR carrier they still seem to have that along side as a so called "Amusement Park" yeah right! But many yrs did it take them to finally scrap HMAS Melbourne? the old Australian carrier that was payed off back in 86.

[strategist]

I agree about the submarines, and it fits what appears currently to be a sea denial strategy on Beijing's part. I read an interesting article a while ago on this. Will send you the link to it when I find it.

[Venkat]

China and Pakistan are dangerous countries. Pakistan is the hot-bed of terroism.With the policy of appeasement of minority muslims and the outside collusion of Pakis with chinese -red and the local maoists and communists helping internal terrorism,India needs such icons including atomic weapons to exist as democracy in Asia.Only Dummbos say that india is seeking super-power status.It is a vicious propaganda of the economic domination of USA,Europe and Australia. India to remain idependent soverign nation She requires more war machines.

[Ortho]

"India is developing a military appetite to match its growing economic power", begins and article in today's NY Times.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/31/business/worldbusiness/31indiaarms.html

[strategist]

Thanks for the link Ortho.