Submarine Spotting

Satellite imagery showing two Jin-class submarines at Huludao, 400 km east of Beijing.

Exkiwiforces kindly sent me this article about China's sea nuclear deterrent. The article highlights how commercial satellite imagery enabled analyst Hans Kristensen (Strategic Security Blog) to identify two, possibly three, Jin-class (Type 094) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).

The recently launched submarines seem to be equipped with 12 launch tubes for the Julang-2 ballistic missile, which is currently being developed. According to Kristensen, it is not yet clear whether the PLA Navy has launched two or three Jin-class submarines. In December 2006 the US Office of Naval Intelligence estimated that

"a fleet of probably five TYPE 094 SSBNs will be built in order to provide more redundancy and capacity for a near-continuous at-sea SSBN presence."

Kristensen had this to say about the implications of this new capability.

"If Julang-2 and three Jin-class SSBNs become fully operational, it would enable China to deploy up to 24 ballistic missiles at sea, assuming one boat would be in overhaul at any given time....The range of the Julang-2 is estimated at more than 8,000 km...which brings Hawaii and Alaska...within reach from Chinese territorial waters....

Whether China plans to deploy a continuous sea-based deterrent is unknown. It appears doubtful because it would break with the Chinese practice of not deploying fully operational nuclear missiles....If the submarines deployed into the Pacific...it would also break with Chinese policy of not deploying nuclear weapons outside Chinese territory. An alternative would be to operate the SSBNs as a surge capability, intended to deploy in a crisis."

Although China's SSBN capability is primarily directed at the US, it also brings India and a large area of Russia well within missile range.

Comments

[shane]

Your last point (re: Russian and India) is ironic, because these boomers look almost identical to old Soviet "DELTA III" SSBNs. I wonder if the collapse of the Berlin Wall (and subsequent need in Russia for hard cash) elicited some kind of exchange in the past decade?

[strategist]

Hi Shane

It's interesting how there is often a disconnect between a country's strategic interests and its policy on arms sales. Is this a function of countries not fully appreciating their strategic interests, currently and where these might lie in the future? Or does it just reflect disfunction between different arms of government?

Peter