"What the hell were they thinking?"

Shadi Hamid looks at Hamas's motives for antagonizing Israel with rocket attacks in weeks leading up to the Israeli air assault (h/t What You Must Read).

"So what are Hamas's strategic imperatives? There are a few things going on here. Hamas is effectively the government of Gaza, but this does not mean it acts like a state might in similar circumstances. Hamas still behaves like a traditional guerrilla or terrorist group. Such groups are interested in relative, not absolute, victory. As long as they survive, this can be spinned as victory, which makes them impossible to defeat in any conclusive sense."

This is interesting analysis. Read the rest of the article here.

Comments

[Quentin]

"Shadi Hamid looks at Hamas's motives..." This has to be one of the most interesting and plausible analysis I have read in a while.

I wonder if the analysis could be the same as the Georgia War 2008? eg. same kind of motives. I am still stratching my head over georgia.

[Sven Ortmann]

I see several reasons for Hamas' actions, but I'm no expert on the area.

1)
"We need to do something." Some people can't sit straight when trickled. Israel felt that a truce doesn't exclude assassinations, and Hamas wanted to reply (with their limited capabilities - I guess they would love to use LGBs or assassinate cabinet members, but that's simply not in their repertoire).

2)
Different value system. Life is miserable, children are plenty, religion is important - these and other things warped their value system to something that's very alien to us.

3)
Remind everyone (Israelis and Arabs) that the struggle against Israel will go on till there's (at least) no Zionism in the Near East any more.
That's no perpetual conflict. Israel will eventually lose - maybe in one generation, maybe in two - maybe in five. Time works for the Arabs.

4)
Something to bargain. They wanted more border traffic and had nothing to offer. Violence gave them the possibility of a truce to offer.
The Hamas kept the truce pretty well when it was in force - a good reputation for a new truce. They were not satisfied with the border traffic situation, though.
(Maybe they should begin to blame the Egyptians - that's their second border, after all.

Maybe all borders with Gaza Strip should be closed and instead all transports should be by sea - thoroughly inspected by U.N. personnel (arms embargo) with personnel contingents from states that only slightly favor Israel's side (to prevent bribery).