Eight years after 9/11, al-Qaida is on the run. This according to Jason Burke, who writes that affiliated groups in Algeria and Mauritania are strong, but
"al-Qaida central", situated in Pakistan's tribal agencies, is in disarray. Why? Partly because of deadly UAV drone strikes against middle and top leaders…
"The European volunteers speak of the almost neurotic concern about invisible 'chips' supposedly planted by spies to guide in missile attacks. Fear of interception meant no use of mobile phones, only radio and notes carried by hand…"
Burke concludes this insightful article by saying that for terrorists, "simply surviving represents a victory". Well, that may be so, but it's a pretty poor sort of victory if you're hiding out in isolated huts, constantly scurrying from one hiding place to another, always fearing that each minute may be your last, and unable to advance your aims because you can't communicate effectively with the outside world.
This suggests
that while the west may never eradicate terrorist groups like al-Qaida, skillful use of
advanced technology and highly trained specialists can keep a group's
leadership pinned down, significantly disrupt its organization, and curtail its ability to inspire and direct.
You couldn't call this a decisive victory, but it may represent a state of affairs - a stalemate, better yet a situation where you have the upper hand - that the west could live with. The analogy is with pest control. You'll never stop mice from raiding your house, but with sustained pressure and appropriate countermeasures - a hungry cat, cunningly placed traps - you can contain the problem.
Photo: lafrancevi - Heron UAV, Kandahar airfield.


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