The Strategist

Caught my eye this week - darknets and sub atomic wave guns

Here are some articles that caught my eye this week...

• New Zealand exports high-tech weapons to China, like the Pomsom 6000 Sub Atomic Wave Gun and the Grordbort 66 Sonic Destabiliser.

• The Guardian's Andy Beckett ventures into the deep web and darknets. Reminds me of a line from Milton's Paradise Lost: "On Heav'nly ground they stood, and from the shore, They viewed the vast immeasurable abyss".

• A translation of the Ango-Saxon poem 'The Wanderer' - "So spoke the wanderer, mindful of hardships, of fierce slaughters, and the downfall of kinsmen".

• A call for urban authorities to invest in "green infrastructure", the network of living green spaces, such as parks, gardens, cemeteries, woodlands and waterways, so that they work together as a functioning system.

Oh, and here's a rose from the garden...

Securing the cities, counterinsurgency style

Dean thinks that a counterinsurgency approach is the key to restoring security in America's lawless industrial cities...

Generally, the state’s response has been to respond to the problems caused by this situation by focusing on those elements which organize the most and, therefore, appear most threatening to the state system. 

As soon as a criminal organization is able to accrue enough power to exert its will geographically on a (semi) regular basis, law enforcement moves to crush it. 

While that results in a tangible good (bringing to justice those who have preyed upon local inhabitants and broken laws) it creates a host of cascading consequences that are almost never dealt with (a return of anarchy, increased violence as previously suppressed actors fight for control, etc.) until another network attracts the attention of the state.

I've got no problem with the state attacking criminal gangs. But as the state takes down the gangs, it's got to fill the power vacuum. The state must nurture alternative and legitimate governance structures - ideally grassroots citizens' councils. It must protect these councils against resurgent criminal elements. And it must give the councils money, resources and training. This is so councils can get essential services and economic activity going, facilitate community consultation and elections, and administer their own affairs.

How do you get more people cycling?

I love cycling to and from work. It's free. It's clean. It's faster than the car or bus. And it's a great workout. No need for expensive gym fees.

But in New Zealand, most people don't see cycling as a viable way of getting to work. Cycling makes up about 1% of all trips. Twenty years ago it was 3.6%. Most New Zealanders get to and from work by car, usually one person to a car. By contrast, in some northern European countries 20 to 30% of trips are made by bike.

This is pretty appalling for a country that markets itself to the outside world as being clean and green - "100% pure". And pretty appalling for a people who pride themselves on being fit, rugged and outdoorsy types. This is bullshit, of course. Most of us are indoorsy - we spend our days inside homes, offices, cafes, cars and gyms.

The New Zealand government wants to increase cycling and walking to 30% of total trips in urban areas by 2040. There's fat chance of this happening unless central government and local authorities make a sustained investment in cycling facilities, like networks of bike lanes (proper lanes, that is, separated from the road), kerbside bike racks, and roads where cyclists and walkers get priority over cars.

Cyclists have to play their part too. There's nothing more off-putting than seeing cyclists with hairy white legs, riding along in tight lycra shorts, bright reflective jackets and cheap crappy helmets.

For cyclists, the following should be de rigueur: fit and tanned bodies, slick bikes, snappy gear, and cool shades. If we want more people to cycle, then we have to make it cool, stylish and fun.

Waiting for the utopian city

 

If you could design your city of the future, what would it look like?

This article highlights scientific research into ways that biotech could be used to create sustainable urban habitats and fight climate change...

"Forget skyscrapers studded with undimmed lights. Instead, think of crystal whites and luminous blues forging the city’s silhouette. Picture a city that sucks in carbon and uses bacteria harvested from dead fish to light the darkness."

The ideas outlined in the piece are interesting, and would be pretty cool if they came about. But why wait for some utopia? We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that there are many practical things that we can do now to make cities more liveable and sustainable and less polluting.

Like giving walking, cycling and public transport priority over cars. Like making cities self-sustaining, though measures like distributed and micro renewable energy generation (solar panels on rooftops), urban farming, and household rainwater collection and greywater recycling. And like growing or renewing urban forests to soak up carbon dioxide and provide habitat for other animals.

"Always blow on the pie"

This Youtube clip has turned Auckland police dog handler Guy Baldwin into an internet legend. With deadpan humour, Baldwin tells a suspected crim how to eat pies...

"Three o'clock in the morning, that pie has been in the warming drawer for probably about 12 hours. It'll be thermo-nuclear. You must always blow on the pie. Always blow on the pie. Safer communities together."

"Safer communities together" is the New Zealand Police's vision.

And, check out this "A Few Good Men" remix...

Archbishop Williams - a church leader for our times?

Why did I give up going to church?

One reason was that the Anglican faith I was baptized into seemed to have nothing to say about the things that worry me. Like the way humans are hell-bent on devastating the earth. Like the lunacy of the "economic growth" ideology. Like the vacuousness of much of modern life - our obsession with celebrities and buying stuff.

So I found it pleasantly surprising to read the Archbishop of Canterbury's thoughts on climate change, sustainability and modern lifestyles. In an interview with the Times, Dr Rowan Williams called for...

"families to respond to climate change by changing their shopping habits and adjusting their diets to the seasons, eating fruit and vegetables that could be grown in Britain"

"more land to be made available for allotments, saying that they would help people to reconnect with nature and wean them off a consumerist lifestyle"

"politicians to end their obsession with economic growth and recognise that a sustainable society could not be achieved by the relentless pursuit of material wealth."

I won't be surprised if the Archbishop is attacked by those with a vested interest in maintaining capitalist society and its grotesque inequalities. Their hired guns will call him a fuddy-duddy, ridicule him as well-meaning but naive, and tell him to "stick to religion".

But religion is not confined to the interiors of churches. It is not about sitting on pews, reciting scripture, and praying to otherworldly beings.

Religion should help us deal with real world problems. It should give us ideas about how to grapple with the moral dilemmas that confront us daily. It should fortify us in our belief that the good life is not about lusting after power, money, status and stuff.

Dr Williams is, perhaps, a rare bird, a church leader who says practical, sensible and courageous things about our relationship with the environment and about the moral issues of our time.  

The end of the beginning: tally of "Own Two Feet"

A better way to get in shape - cycle about or spend money at the gym?

On 6 September I set myself a personal challenge. To cut back on my use of the car and to get about using my own two feet (or failing that to use public transport) over a four week period.

Why? I wanted to become more self-reliant and resilient, and cut back on my use of fossil fuels. I wanted to gauge the difference this makes to my quality of life. I wanted to get a sense of how practical an "own two feet" lifestyle is for a suburban dweller.

How did I go? Over the 28 days of the challenge, I travelled 336.5 kilometres (208 miles). Here's how I got about:

• I walked 103.5 km, mostly home from work, but also shorter trips in my neighbourhood, e.g., to the supermarket or the school.

• I cycled 100 km, mostly to and from work and the swimming pool.

• I travelled 103 km on the bus, mostly going to work, but also on a couple of weekend trips to and from the city.

• I scooted 4.5 km, on local trips with my son.

• I drove 25.5 km, on six short trips, mostly in the first week, either because it was raining or because I had to get to several places quickly. The longest time I went without using the car was nine days.

Upshot - for four weeks in spring I was able to get around my city, doing the usual range of activities, largely without needing to use the car.

Some people might think that this challenge sounds like a drag. Far from it. I enjoyed it. It gave me plenty of sun, fresh air and exercise. It gave me time to think, to observe what was going on around me, and to discover some interesting nooks and crannies in my native city. It also had a psychological benefit: I feel healthier, and there's something very satisfying about being able to rely on yourself, rather than a car, for getting around.

What surprised me was how quickly leaving the car at home became a habit. So much so that I'm going to keep on doing it, to extend the challenge to one year. I'll report every month on my progress.

I'm not pledging never to use the car again. Cars are useful, especially when you need to move heavy stuff around, transport the kids between several sporting events on Saturday morning, or go somewhere where there's no public transport. But we need to learn to use cars wisely and in moderation, e.g., by getting the most use out of single car journeys.

Many thanks to everyone who encouraged me and made insightful observations and helpful suggestions over the last four weeks. 

The quest ends: week 4 of Operation Own Two Feet

 

This is the end of week 4 - the final week - of "Operation Own Two Feet", my personal challenge to cut back on using the car. In the last seven days I've travelled 79 kilometres (49 miles). I cycled 42.5 km, walked 15.5 km, and caught the bus 21 km. I haven't used the car for the last nine days.

This morning I walked to my mother's house in the city, 10 km (6 miles) away, to pick up my son who had spent the night there. It took about 90 minutes, compared with 10 to 15 minutes if I'd gone there in the car.

You could argue that if I'd driven I could have spent the saved 75 or 80 minutes doing other things. But the walk served several purposes:

• it gave me a good work-out: 10 km of brisk walking, including two big hills;

• I took photos along the way, so spent part of the time doing one of my hobbies;

• my walk had zero impact on the environment, i.e., no carbon emissions from the car;

• I saved money - the cost of petrol; and

• I visited my mother and picked up my son (we caught the bus home).

All up I'd say that this was a pretty efficient use of time and energy.

In the next couple of days I'll write about the overall result for Operation Own Two Feet, and draw some conclusions about the practicality of an "own two feet" lifestyle.

Ditching the car - perception is everything

Yesterday I ended week three of Operation Own Two Feet, my personal quest to cut back on using the car. My daily log records that during the week I travelled 67.5 kilometres (almost 42 miles). Here's how I got around:

• cycled 34 km;

• took the bus 19 km;

• walked 12.25 km; and

• scooted just under 1 km.

I used the car once, to pick up my son after school on a rainy day, a 1.5 km trip.

What's surprised me is how quickly I've got out of the habit of using the car. Before the challenge, cycling to the swimming pool, walking home from work, or taking my son on the bus to a friend's party, seemed like a hassle. Now, after just three weeks, walking, cycling and busing has become almost routine. It's also enjoyable.

Part of the difference involves reorienting your mindset. If you think about the benefits of walking or cycling - such as exercise, fresh air, saving money - rather than the "hassle", you're far more likely to get out and do it. Yesterday my six-year old son taught me a valuable lesson in this respect. When I suggested, with some trepidation, that we catch the bus into the city instead of driving, he leapt at the idea...

"Cool!" he exclaimed. 

"Why's it cool?" I asked, a little surprised.

"Because in the bus you sit up really high and you don't have to wear seatbelts".

Perception is everything.

These boots are made for walking...and cycling

I've reached the end of week two of "Operation Own Two Feet". Looking at my daily log, I see that I've travelled 89 kilometres in the last seven days.

One kilometre was by car: a taxi ride, last night, with colleagues, on the way to a bar. Enough said. Otherwise I walked 29.5 km, cycled 23.5 km and bused 35 km. I did my supermarket shopping online and got the groceries delivered to the door.

Dean at Travels with Shiloh has followed my lead by biking to work: read about his experience here. One of the points Dean makes is that...

"As fun as this was I can see how it would get really old.  Inclement weather would raise all sorts of difficulties ranging from annoyances to making the trip impossible."

After reading this I realized that if you're trying to leave the car in the garage, it helps to have several viable options for getting about. In Wellington, if the weather is crap I can catch a bus or train. It also helps to live in safe and compact places. But many people live in sprawling cities and suburbs where there are few alternatives to the car. As Adrian commented...

"potential walkers in American cities cannot - driving a car is safer in many instances, especially at night, because it means you don't have to walk through neighborhoods in which you are at risk of street robbery".

And Dean added...

"many American communities have been developed...to discourage walking (or any form of transportation other than personal car for that matter).

Shopping, businesses, recreational facilities, parks, are placed far from residential areas. Bike lanes are virtually non-existent (not to mention bike racks) and our incredibly poor driver training/testing standards means biking on the road can be particularly hazardous."

Sometimes I think that even enlightened urban planners get things around the wrong way. They look for complicated solutions to urban transport - light rail, trams, bus only lanes - but eschew simple and practical measures.

Wide pavements, walkways, pedestrian-friendly crossings, public bike racks, cycle lanes - these are simple and cheap measures which could help cut the number of cars on the road, manage pressure on public transport and finances, and reduce waistlines, blood pressure and cholesterol.

Time to reflect - Operation "Own Two Feet"

I've finished week one of "Own Two Feet". In the last seven days I've travelled just over 100 kilometres. Of that I've walked 46 km, caught the bus 28 km, and scooted 3.5 km. That's a total of 77.5 km travel without a car. I used the car four times (Wednesday and Saturday), for a distance of 23 km.

In terms of convenience, the non-car travel felt pretty good. It's faster to get to work by bus than car. And sure, walking took longer than using the car. But there's something simple and satisfying about setting out and arriving on foot. There were obvious health benefits. And walking gave me time to reflect, and to observe things that you'd miss if you roared by - one evening, along Evans Bay, I watched large flocks of terns and petrels diving for schooling fish.

Few people seem to walk any distance. By this I mean walking to get from A to B, rather than walking for exercise at lunch or after work. On Wednesday I walked to and from the swimming pool, a 7 km trip. During this time, I saw no more than ten people - all slim, I might add - also walking. Granted, it was a working day, but at the same time a steady stream of cars went by. Most had one person inside.

For most of us, using the car to travel even short distances has become ingrained. We use the car because it's "convenient", and because it saves time which, ostensibly, can be used to do other things.

But other modes of travel are not inconvenient. They simply require a different, perhaps less pressured, mindset. And car travel has its downsides, its own inconveniences: like getting stuck in traffic, or having to hunt for a park in the city or at the supermarket. 

How much time do we really save when we use the car? Driving takes concentration - you can't think deeply about issues, or watch birds, when you're behind the wheel. And can you claim to have saved time if, when you get home, all you do is blob in front of the TV?

Ancient practices for modern times - coppicing and pollarding

The Oil Drum has an interesting post on wood (biomass) as an energy source.

I was intrigued by the discussion about coppicing and pollarding, and the potential that these ancient practices have for generating local or regional sources of fuel, power, income and employment, and habitat for animals.

Coppicing and pollarding are traditionally rural activities, but vacant urban space - the "inner wasteland" - could also be used for growing wood for fuel.

Willow is a mainstay fuel source, but in New Zealand there might also be native equivalents. Mahoe, Melicytus ramiflorus, for example, is a vigorous and fast-growing tree which, when cut back, quickly sends up woody shoots.

Caught my eye - Shag Camp, black swans and farming Detroit

Here are some posts and articles that caught my eye recently...

• Jules Evans at Global Dashboard visits Shag Camp Climate Camp in London. "And for a second, I was jealous of John spending the next few nights in the camp. I bet he meets some really hot women, I thought".

• Nassim Nicholas Taleb lectures British conservative leader David Cameron about black swans and the financial system. Interesting how Taleb doesn't seem to have bothered writing to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Wonder what that's all about?

• Mark Dowie writes about the nascent take-off of urban farming in Detroit. He believes that Detroit may "become the first modern American city where agriculture, while perhaps not the largest, is the most vital industry".

Caught my eye ... Nigerian scammers and "dastardly operations"

Here are some posts, articles and press releases that caught my eye this week...

• The Guardian profiles woman cops gunning for drug traffickers in Rio's favelas. Inspector De Mello: "I enjoy operations. When we don't have them I feel unmotivated. Today I feel professionally satisfied."

• Dean at Travels with Shiloh rips into Steven Pressfield's vids on tribes in Afghanistan. I don't know if Pressfield's spent time in Afghanistan, but Dean has. When he says that Pressfield's videos are "rife with over simplifications and generalities", I sit up and take note.

• Press release from the Columbia FBI on the latest Nigerian scam (h/t Bruce Schneier). What's interesting about this scam is how the tactics of the Nigerians are changing and evolving.

• Whoever claimed that the only benefit of organic food is that it's "healthier"? I eat organic food because it hasn't been drenched in herbicides and pesticides.

• Meanwhile in Pyongyang, Rodong Simnun, aka the "Newspaper of the Workers", denounces the imperialists and their puppets for "intensifying the dastardly operations for ideological and cultural poisoning".

Caught my eye - freelance hackers and puppet stooges

Some blog posts and articles that caught my eye this week...

• China plans to use its massive foreign exchange reserves to snap up overseas natural and energy resources.

• David Rondfeldt blogs about collaborative communities as a way of organizing for cyber security.

• Desertec is one step closer to generating electricity from sunlight falling on North African deserts.
  

• Dark Visitor notes a poll of China's netizens: asked which criminal job they'd prefer, most chose freelance hacker over human trafficker, assassin, drug dealer, gambler, gang leader, spy and robber.

• On the 56th anniversary of the great Fatherland Liberation War, a North Korean war hero recalls the defeat of the US imperialist aggressors and their puppet stooges.

Imagining the 21st century - "gangland" cities (2)

In the 21st century most of us will live in cities, of one sort or another. Here are some ideas about the possible evolution of cityscapes.

Those who live in the 21st century's city-states, whether in Asia, Europe or the Americas, will be the lucky ones. In the Third World, sprawling, polluted and anarchic slum megacities will continue to grow. No amount of "development aid", "economic growth" or utopian dreaming is going to change that trajectory.

In the west, former industrial cities of the 19th and 20th centuries will be gradually abandoned. Some will shrink into smaller and more viable hubs, abandoning the suburbs to nature, and if they're lucky becoming absorbed in the hinterland of a prosperous city-state. Others will become "ganglands", controlled and fought over by cash-strapped local authorities and cashed-up crime cartels. In the worst cases, think Roman Britain after the legions pulled out in 410AD and the barbarians moved in.

There could be transitional phases lasting decades in which westerners fight insurgencies not in far-flung places like Afghanistan, but much closer to home, in decaying cities, marches between city-states and ganglands, and frontier zones like the American/Mexican border and the Balkans. Gangland cities will provide criminals with secure bases for making, storing and trafficking drugs, guns and other illegal materials. Global terrorists and criminals will find sanctuary there.

Some gangland cities might be highly organized and prosperous, ruled by powerful cartel lords, and networked with gangs in other cities. Others will be a violent, poverty-stricken and fragmented mess where power flows and ebbs between a succession of petty tyrants. For city-states and national governments, the ganglands will constitute their greatest security threat.

Many cities will be stuck somewhere between city-states and ganglands. Generally prosperous cities, like London or Vancouver, will have poor slums and violent no-go areas. Generally poor and violent cities - Johannesburg is a contemporary example - may have wealthy and heavily fortified enclaves, protected by private mercenary companies.

For decaying cities, "Roman Britain" scenarios are not inevitable. As I've written before, in some places municipal authorities and national governments, working with local communities, may retain or regain control from gangs by using counterinsurgency practices and urban regeneration programmes.

>> Imagining the 21st century series

Imagining the 21st century - Rise of the city-states (1)

In the 21st century most of us will live in cities of one sort or another. Here are some ideas about the possible evolution of cityscapes over the course of the century.

Historically subordinated to feudal interests and nation-states, many cities, large and small, will regain some degree of autonomy. Large educated populations and high technology will give some cities critical mass, enabling them to become self-sufficient in revenue, food, water, energy, and waste management.

These cities will consist of vibrant urban cores, and hinterlands which were once sprawling suburbs but have been depopulated and converted to the intensive production of food, timber, energy and water. The "inner wasteland" of the urban core will also be used to grow food and generate power. People will live in the densely populated core or in compact communities in the hinterland. Many residents will be employed producing food, water, energy, or in ecological restoration and waste recycling.

Such cities will become powerful political entities in their own right - city-states which hark back to the ancient Greek polis and the medieval city republic. They will govern themselves, retain tax revenues, levy militias (or pay for mercenary forces), and conduct their own foreign, security, economic, energy and environmental policies.

They may or may not break formally with nation-states: de facto forms of autonomy and symbiotic relationships will be common. A symbiotic relationship might involve a city-state paying the national government to provide for its defence against other nation-states or powerful non-state entities.

City-states may not necessarily be democracies. Oligarchies may thrive at the city-wide governance level, perhaps with communitarian and theocratic forms of governance operating in neighbourhoods, towns and villages. City-states will be linked to each other with high speed computer networks and transport. Some may form loose "communities of cities": separated by distance but networked for security, economic, cultural and sporting activities and the exchange of ideas and innovations. 

>> Imagining the 21st century series

(Photo: Timothy K Hamilton, "Chicago nightfall panorama".)

Applying Kilcullen's ideas to urban regeneration

As I mentioned several weeks ago, I've recently read David Kilcullen's The Accidental Guerrilla. Here's a post I wrote at Global Dashboard which adapts one of Kilcullen's counterinsurgency concepts to urban regeneration and countering criminal gangs in rundown western cities.

Caught my eye - China power and cyber "strikeback"

• China's making massive investments in solar and wind power. As I've mentioned before, this is an important trend to watch, and one where China could steal a technological march on the west.

• Edward Glaeser writes about bulldozing America's shrinking cities, and how "urban decline is a reality in much of older, colder America".

• America and Britain prepare to "strikeback" against Russian, Chinese, and North Korean (???) hackers.

Lending direct to Third World entrepreneurs

I've been thinking about micro-credit schemes recently, in the context of some work that I'm involved with.

Here's the link to a short piece I wrote at Global Dashboard about Kiva, the web-based micro-credit lender. I ended by posing these two questions:

"I’d be interested to see if Kiva starts offering portfolios which lend for specific purposes, like organic farming and micro-power generation. And if the micro-credit concept can be applied in developed countries for people who can’t get business loans from commercial banks because they lack collateral."

Notes on resilience: growing new farmers and urban gardeners

A boot camp for farmers? Here's an article about an organic farm in Cabarrus County, North Carolina, which is training newbie farmers to grow food for local eating (h/t Global Guerrillas)...

"For a $100 yearly fee, participants get their own half-acre to work, use of a tractor and other equipment. Those who stick it out for three to five years should be ready to make it on their own and, like rotating crops, will be replaced by a new class....

Among the first nine 'participant farmers' are a stay-at-home mom, a banker nearing retirement and a volunteer intent on supplying food to the homeless at Charlotte's Urban Ministry Center. Most are home gardeners, but none had grown on a commercial scale.

Before they first turned dirt, they went through nine weeks of basic training, from building soil to buying insurance to handling finances."

You could run similar schemes in cities for people who want to grow their own food in their back gardens but lack the know-how. Set up a community group, get some grant funding, and organize a group of skilled gardeners (such as green-fingered retired folk) to train and mentor budding gardeners. In exchange, newbies might tithe a share of the produce to the mentors and local charities.

Inner wasteland 6: the shrinking city of Flint, Michigan

An abandoned house in my neighbourhood.

SE emailed me about my Inner Wasteland and Regeneration series:

"While I cannot say I agree with you in every instance about the utility of making greenspace for the sake of greenspace, I can say that your ideas on Urban Wastelands may be coming to fruition in the US".

He kindly sent me this article about Flint, Michigan, a city with a dwindling population. Here the local county is shrinking the city - allowing abandoned suburbs to revert to woodland, and concentrating housing, business and services in the city's core...

"The local authority has restored the city's attractive but formerly deserted centre but has pulled down 1,100 abandoned homes in outlying areas. Mr Kildee estimated another 3,000 needed to be demolished, although the city boundaries will remain the same. Already, some streets peter out into woods or meadows, no trace remaining of the homes that once stood there."

Now I'm not arguing for making urban "greenspace for the sake of greenspace". What I'm suggesting is that urban wasteland should be converted into space that is productive in some sense. Examples of productive use could include...

• communal gardens, which would provide food and livestock, plus employment and local resilience;

• parkland, which would provide recreational opportunities; and

• woodland, which would absorb carbon dioxide, stabilize hill-slopes, minimize rainwater runoff, and provide habitat for wildlife.

SE's given me a couple of other interesting ideas to chew on, which I'll follow up in another post.

Imagining the 21st century: influences

 

Max Platte's 'Solace in the wind', Taranaki St Wharf, Wellington

I've been thinking about influences - the things that could have great impacts on our lives in the 21st century. Here are three that I think will be important...

• Limits - humankind is hitting the limits of what we can draw from the earth, be that oil, minerals, water, food. Scarcity of natural resources, and the implications for our wasteful way of life, will be a principal concern for governments and communities. Most of us are going to have to live with a lot less, and do fundamental things differently and far more efficiently.

• Religion - monotheistic creeds, especially Christianity and Islam, have a big future. In a polluted, overcrowded, violent and impoverished world, many people will be attracted to their simple but effective and revolutionary messages. Christianity, for instance, offers hope for the future. If you live in one of the world's many mega-slums and your destiny is a short life of grinding poverty and brutality, Christianity offers the hope of resurrection after death and salvation in the afterlife.  

• Communities - in the west people are rediscovering the benefits of belonging to communities, especially self-organizing and resilient local communities that work together and pool resources for the common good. Resilient communities will be crucial for helping us make do with less, and for protecting us from those who want to take what we have.

I'm keen to hear readers' views on what you think will be big influences on life in the 21st century, either in comments or by email.

Kilcullen on Islamic radicalization in Europe

Last week Alex Evans wrote that Global Dashboard is a "hotbed of David Kilcullen fandom". Bravo! I am too, and as you know I've been reading Kilcullen's The Accidental Guerrilla.

In the book Kilcullen writes at length on counterinsurgency campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. He also looks at guerrilla warfare in East Timor, Pakistan and southern Thailand (the long-running Malay separatist struggle). Another interesting section deals with Islamic radicalization in Europe...

Read the rest of this post here at Global Dashboard, where I'm guest blogging in June...

What's the future for Transition Towns?

At Ethical Living, Leo Hickman asks how the Transition Towns movement can keep expanding into new communities...

"[In the UK] many of the communities that have warmly welcomed the ideals of the Transition Movement have to date been those that already have, let's say, something of a reputation for being hubs of left-leaning greenery. I'm thinking Totnes, Lewes, Brixton, Bristol and the like. How does the movement now reach beyond these low-hanging fruit?"

One idea might be to adapt the concept to include concerns other than Peak Oil and climate change. As important as these issues are, communities may have other, more immediate, concerns. For example, one community may be worried about meth-fuelled crime, another by the poor quality of representation in local government, a third by a lack of local jobs.

Another idea is to take the key themes of Transition Towns - communities thinking about the future and taking action to deal with big issues - and apply this to the way central and local government work with communities. The role of government should not be to dictate ("I'm a bureaucrat and I know what's best for you") but to facilitate - to provide communities with resources and support.

Regeneration 4

I often walk along the Wellington waterfront at lunchtime. Today I took this photo at the western end of Taranaki St wharf, which has been landscaped with coastal shrubs, grasses and rocks. It's a good example of how native vegetation can be used to restore an old industrial site. Old sea anchors, propeller blades and other sea artifacts nestle amongst the rocks and shrubs, reminding passers-by of the maritime heritage of the area.

Inner wasteland 5

Yesterday I took my camera and went for a walk around an industrial park at Rongotai, near Wellington's airport.

Like most old industrial parks, Rongotai is bleak and ugly, an inner wasteland of asphalt, steel, bricks, corrugated iron, concrete, and barbed wire fences. Walking around, you notice the enormous amount of empty space: the wide streets; the large parking lots and yards; and the many smaller spaces  squeezed between or behind buildings and festooned with rubbish, weeds, rusting engine blocks, pallets and packing cases. 

And yet, in the cracks and corners of this urban desert, a profusion of weeds, grasses, shrubs and trees have taken root. Self-seeded natives like dune grasses, karo, cabbage trees, ngaio and taupata - survivors of an ancient ecology - are thriving. It's an object lesson in resilience, and a reminder of nature's tenacity.

Such tenacity suggests the regenerative potential for even the bleakest of urban deserts. Trees, shrubs and grass could be planted to soften the harsh edges of industrial areas, provide places of relaxation and recreation for workers, and absorb rainwater and carbon dioxide. As industrial areas decline and die, the land could be regenerated as park land and urban forest (for recreation, and carbon dioxide capture) and turned over to growing food. 

Car-free communities and climate criminals

Here's some things that caught my eye this week...

• A car-free community in Germany...

• Brand new suburban homes being demolished in the US...

• Global warming forces Carteret Islanders to abandon their homes...

It's ironic, and tragic, that the car-free Carteret Islanders have to flee their ancestral islands because of the greed of these climate criminals.

Inner wasteland 4

Have you noticed how much of our urban space is covered only in grass - playing fields, bowling greens, golf courses, front lawns, roadside verges and so on? Why are we so obsessed with grass? At least playing fields serve a useful purpose (I can't say the same about golf courses) but the often spacious roadside verges don't.

The picture shows a verge at the entrance to Miramar, Wellington - another instance of the "inner wasteland". This is a large grassy area which is mowed every week or so by a tractor that burns Saudi crude. It features a billboard enticing us to buy cars that also burn Saudi crude. All up a poor use of space.

Pulling down the billboard and planting the site with trees and shrubs would be far more useful. As with this nearby site, trees would provide habitat for birds, make an attractive entrance to Miramar, soak up carbon dioxide, and cut the fuel costs of mowing the lawn.

Micro-lending more than just loans

Lately I've got interested in micro-lending initiatives. The basic idea is lending small amounts of money, at low interest rates, to poor people who want to set up businesses but can't get money from banks because they don't have enough collateral.

Two examples of micro-lending initiatives are Bangladesh's Grameen Bank and Kiva. Grameen loans money to small village-based groups of women. Kiva is a US-based not-for-profit organization that enables people with money to lend directly to local entrepreneurs in developing countries via the internet.

It was interesting to read this post at Free Exchange, which considers how really poor people make ends meet. It makes this point about micro-lending:

"Ironically, many of the aid workers and celebrities who claim to speak for the poor can't balance their own check books. They often promote microfinance, which can be helpful. But most poor people need financial services that enable them to smooth their consumption more than they need a loan to start a new business."

Last week I was involved in a debate about micro-lending. One of my colleagues made the point that it's not just about the money. If you want poor people to be successful with their business ventures - and really, this is the point of the exercise - you need to provide them with tuition (e.g., basic reading, writing, book keeping) and ongoing advice and support, e.g., through a mentoring programme. In other words, less of a bank, more of a business incubator.

Regeneration 3

I took this photo in Wellington's "Town Belt", on the eastern slopes of Mt Victoria. This is an area of regenerated urban forest, used by Wellingtonians for walking, mountain-biking and other recreation.

When the first English settlers arrived in Wellington in 1839, most of Mt Victoria was covered in dense native forest. By the late 1860s, most of the forest had been cut down and much of the land converted to pasture. From the 1880s a mix of planting, natural regeneration and protection led to the creation of a lush urban forest.

As well as recreational and visual benefits for Wellingtonians, the forest prevents erosion and water run-off, absorbs carbon dioxide, and provides habitat for wildlife. In cities which are shrinking, like Flint, Michigan, abandoned suburbs could be regenerated as woodlands for a variety of uses.

Inner wasteland 3

Apologies to any golfers...

Golf courses are one of the worst examples of the "inner wasteland". They occupy a lot of space yet are used by a small number of people. They require large amounts of water. Vast quantities of chemical pesticides and fertilizers are dumped on them.

Imagine if this golf course in Wellington, NZ, was converted to a mix of community energy, food and wood production. Some areas of the space could be covered with solar panels, perhaps with sheep grazing the rows between. Other areas could be converted into community vegetable gardens, chicken coops, fish ponds, and stands of fruit, nut and coppiced trees.

As a global society we are butting our heads against natural limits to growth. There is, for example, not enough accessible oil left to satisfy our insatiable demand. There are not enough fish left in the world's oceans to meet our insatiable appetites. Throughout the world, the area of arable land is shrinking due to changing weather patterns, advancing deserts, salinization, and the exhaustion of rivers and aquifers. 

In such a world, we have to rethink how we use available land, and for whose benefit. In such a world, golf courses are an extravagance, a waste of space.

>> Regeneration series

Transition Towns - not waiting for the government

Here's a thought-provoking Times profile of the Transition Towns movement, community gardening and resilient communities in the UK.

The Transition Towns movement originated in Ireland and the UK, and has since spread to communities in the US, Australia, Chile, Japan and New Zealand. It's about communities adapting to the impacts of global energy depletion and climate change, and becoming more resilient and self-sustaining. The movement involves an open source transfer of ideas, information and templates, so that people who want to organize their communities can draw on a model that's worked elsewhere.

Here's how Rob Hopkins, one of the founders of Transition Towns, describes the movement:

"Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale. What we are convinced of is this: (a) if we wait for the government, it’ll be too little, too late; (b) if we act as individuals, it’ll be too little; but (c) if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just in time."

I couldn't agree more, and I work for government.

Regeneration 2

One hundred years ago the Miramar peninsula was grassland, stripped of trees for farming, open to the erosive effect of wind and rain.

During the 20th century the population of Wellington city grew and so did the demand for suburban land. The peninsula gradually evolved into a suburb of Wellington, and farming ended. Now, much of the peninsula is urbanised. But in suburban gardens, trees and shrubs - often self-seeded - are thriving. And large areas, at the north and south ends of the peninsula, are cloaked in regenerating coastal forest and scrub, like this stretch along the Eastern Walkway.

A resilient suburban community needs areas of forest and scrubland: to stabilize hill-slopes, absorb rainfall, soak up carbon dioxide, and provide habitat for wildlife and recreational opportunities for residents.

Regrettably, some people still regard such areas as wasteland, only valuable in terms of their potential for 'development'. We should be mindful about the real value of such areas, and keep them out of the clutches of rapacious land developers.

Inner wasteland 2

Another 'inner wasteland' site, this one next to Burnham wharf at Miramar, Wellington NZ.

There'd be little point in trying to grow a garden here, as the north-west wind gusts across Evans Bay. But you can see that nature is already starting to reclaim the space, with pohutakawa and karo trees. So why not fence off the site, plant coastal native trees and shrubs, and allow it to regenerate? The trees would provide habitat for birds, make for an attractive entrance to Miramar, and soak up carbon dioxide.

The house that George Bush built

This is gut-wrenching: Ghaith Abdul-Ahad's documentary on life in Baghdad for Iraqi civilians. I found part 3 especially harrowing. Two young boys - both about my son's age - described how their parents were killed.

A remarkable film by a remarkable journalist.

Regeneration 1

This is a pond at the Pauatahanui coastal wetlands, north of Wellington, NZ.

Thirty years ago this area was water-logged farmland and a go-kart track. Since 1984 Forest and Bird and the Department of Conservation have regenerated the wetlands, to the point where the area is now home to many species of waterfowl. 

In the 21st century, regenerated wetlands, like Pauatahanui, will play an important role in protecting communities from storm surges and rising sea levels. Rather than let greedy land developers bulldoze subdivisions behind the beach, we'll need to move some communities inland and allow the coastal zone to regenerate - as wetland, dunes and forest - to provide a buffer from the sea.

>> Inner wasteland series

Inner wasteland 1

For some time I've been writing about the urban 'inner wasteland': vacant lots, grassed or concrete verges and backyards, old industrial sites, empty rooftops and so on. And about the need to use such land productively - for cultivating food, generating electricity, collecting and storing rainwater, absorbing runoff, and growing trees to provide timber and fuel and soak up carbon dioxide.

Why? So that our communities can become more resilient by providing at least some of the basics of life - energy, water, food. So that our communities can generate extra employment and activities for local people. So that our communities can take a more active role in local environmental management.

I'm posting a series of photos to highlight the inner wasteland in my city, Wellington, NZ. It's not difficult to find inner wasteland. There are sites all around us - empty, ugly, weed-infested; strewn with rubbish, discarded condoms, and abandoned shopping trolleys; often tucked just out of sight and out of mind. Like the site pictured above - an empty building and lot at Burnham wharf, Miramar. For a society that is obsessed with property rights, we make poor use of a great deal of land.

I'll also look for regenerating places, where people are making productive use of land that was once waste (e.g., for urban gardening), or where nature is doing the job for us.

>> Regeneration series

John Robb on resilient communities

Yesterday I drew your attention to John Robb's Congressional testimony: "Threats to US security in the early 21st century".

I want to highlight a point that John made about the role of government in relation to communities:

"Packages of technologies and methodologies should be developed to enable communities in distressed areas to become resilient – as in, they are able to produce the food, energy, defense, water, etc. they need to prosper without reference to a dysfunctional regional or national situation."

If you think about emergency management, typically, governments encourage individuals to stock up on a week's worth of food, water and fuel, enough to get by until help arrives. But what if the disaster is so severe that it cripples the government's ability to respond, and help takes a long time to come - say several weeks or months? How do we get by once the week's supply of food, water and fuel runs out?

This is where John's idea offers considerable food for thought. If governments focus on assisting individuals and communities to plan for and meet their basic needs during a disaster, communities would be able to get through a disaster and its aftermath in good shape.

For example, if each house had solar panels, it would have enough power to run basic appliances. If each house had a rainwater tank, it would have a clean and replenishable water supply. If each community had a reserve of special constables and a register of community doctors, nurses and paramedics, it could meet its own basic security and medical needs. 

This approach would also free up central and local government to concentrate efforts on dealing with big problems, like getting power grids, water supplies, hospitals, roads and rail back into action.

Grow green cities

For a while I've been writing about the need to make productive use of the 'inner wasteland' in cities, for cultivating food, generating electricity, collecting and storing rainwater, and growing trees to soak up carbon dioxide.

So I was interested to read this Guardian article about two British organizations - Natural England and the Commission for Architecture and the Built Environment (Cabe) - who advocate green cities...

"A new Cabe report criticises local authorities, saying their open spaces are underused and that only a few cities are taking climate change seriously....Cabe suggests towns could buy land and use it for urban forestry, parks, wind turbines and solar arrays.

The report says life in an urban area obscures how much we rely on natural ecosystems and how much the quality of the environment affects people. 'There are opportunities to create community gardens or orchards from derelict plots which [would] improve mental health and well-being.'"

There's no need to buy land to get started on this. In New Zealand at least, local and regional authorities own large tracts of urban land. Much of this land stands empty, is under grass, and is mowed every two weeks or so with lawnmowers which run on oil imported from the Middle East.

Life in seatopia

Seastead design (photo: ipsafictura).

I came across this fascinating article by Chris Baker on seasteading - living in permanent dwellings on the high seas.

I'd just got back from Matiu Somes Island, and was fed up with the thought of going back to work, so the idea appealed. Hanging out on a platform with lots of sun, a swimming pool, heli-pad, wind turbines and solar panels, free from interfering governments, able to do whatever you want to do. Sounds kind of cool, right?

Then I read about the wacko libertarians who want to build these 21st century utopias - sorry, "permanent, autonomous ocean communities" - and their, err, interesting ideas for generating income. Things like euthanasia clinics, prisons, brothels, cloning labs, baby farms, religious retreats, and "ultimate ultimate fighting tournaments". The Seasteading Institute, which is pushing the concept, claims that...

"A seastead is the ideal setting for the so-called sin industries like drugs, prostitution, and gambling. Drugs are low-capital and high-profit, but also carry a great political risks. Still, European countries are relatively tolerant, and as long as drugs are only used locally, the idea may fly.

Prostitution, as long as it does not involve children, is widely accepted....Gambling is also widely accepted. While gambling is common enough that it is unlikely to motivate visitors, having it adds substantially to a resort’s bottom line."

If seasteading ever takes off, you can just imagine all the nutters, doomsday cultists, lone wolves and criminals that would flee to such offshore havens. I don't know about you, but to me this sounds like a nightmare. But isn't that how all utopian visions end?

Want power? Part 2

Jeff replies to my previous post on his idea of a scale-free energy policy...

"I'm certainly not suggesting that we avoid conservation or efficiency, but rather that we focus our limited political, economic, and energy capital on producing distributed, renewable, carbon-neutral generation first precisely because it will be more difficult to accomplish, and because, while it will be a challenge, it may never be as easy as it will be right now..."

So what's the role of government in the development of a "distributed, renewable, carbon-neutral" system of energy generation? It's setting the framework that gets this system up and running and allows it to flourish.

This means breaking with the cosy tradition of focusing policy on big generators and distributors. It means providing incentives that encourage people and communities to generate their own energy - like tax breaks for installing renewable energy technology, a feed-in tariff (to allow individuals to sell surplus electricity to the grid), and standard and simple building regulations for installing micro-generation.

And it means allowing people with smart and practical ideas to get on it in what Jeff calls a "bazaar" of innovation: "we simultaneously develop thousands of solutions that are tuned to our many separate needs, and then share what works, what doesn’t, where, and why for the next iteration."

Want power? Check this out...

...Jeff Vail's post on a scale-free energy policy:

"A simple example would be the achievement of 25% energy self-sufficiency - that is, for individuals to produce 25% of their energy needs domestically, for communities to produce a further 25% of their energy needs locally..."

Initial reaction? I like the concept of a scale-free energy policy but think that it would work more effectively for individuals and local communities, at least initially, with energy conservation rather than generation. This is because it's easy to save energy, more difficult to produce it.

Another thing that's interesting about Jeff's idea is that it could put the interests of individuals, families and communities at the centre of energy policy, not on the sidelines. 

A tipping point for urban gardening?

Urban gardening is making a fashionable comeback, according to the Economist (h/t Eddie):

Although Arkansas is an agricultural state, urban gardening has not always been popular. But now victory gardens are springing up in backyards, school grounds and even on front lawns in posh neighbourhoods. Many gardeners are focusing on "heirloom" plants - rare varieties from earlier times that do not appeal to agribusiness.

Using the phrase "victory garden" gives the wrong impression - that gardening is an emergency measure, something people can do until the end of the slump, then revert to old and unsustainable ways.

Back to the farm we go

In this Global Dashboard post on the future of urbanization, Alex Evans compares and contrasts the views of Richard Florida and James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency. Both men agree that suburbs are dead. But while Florida believes that megacities are set to flourish, Kunstler thinks that we're going to be living locally, in villages and towns.

Alex ends the post with a critique of Kunstler's pro-localization perspective...

"Throughout human history, after all, complexity and non-zero-sum co-operation have grown in tandem - and cities have been a central part of that process.  If we were all to pull back to more or less self-sufficient communities, then that looks to me a lot like the collapse scenarios discussed by Joseph Tainter in his seminal book The Collapse of Complex Societies."

If you want to find out what "pulling back to self-sufficient communities" might look like - in a worst case scenario - read Bryan Ward-Perkins' The Fall of Rome (2005). Based on archaeological and historical evidence, Ward-Perkins argues that the violent barbarian invasions and takeovers of the fifth century AD

"destroyed a complex civilization, throwing the inhabitants of the West back to a standard of living typical of prehistoric times."

This sudden collapse, Ward-Perkins claims, was characterized by drastic, widespread and enduring declines in urbanization, economic sophistication, prosperity, population, literacy and well-made goods.

Urban farming - skyscaper style

This wasn't quite what I had in mind when I wrote recently about urban farming: Eric Vergne's skyscraper farms. According to Inhabitat...

"Eric Vergne’s Dystopian Farm project envisions a future New York City interspersed with elegantly spiraling biomorphic structures that will harness cutting-edge technology to provide the city with its own self-sustaining food source."

There are obvious advantages to centralizing urban food production in skyscraper farms. These include economies of scale and efficient use of space. But this approach would be ripe for abuse, as oligarchies, corporations and criminal gangs could seize control of the food supply for their own benefit. And skyscraper farms would be vulnerable to catastrophic events, like earthquakes, fires and terrorist attacks, which would cause major disruptions to food supply.

A better approach is to have a mix of skyscraper farms and small-scale urban cultivation - backyard, rooftop and communal gardens (the latter on "inner wasteland", e.g., vacant lots, old industrial sites, parking lots, disused factories, offices, apartments). This would build resilience into urban food supply by distributing production throughout the system, rather than concentrating it at a handful of vulnerable nodes.

John on sustainable living for city slickers

Responding to this post, John of Lifeboat Farm offers some advice to urban folk who want to live sustainably:

"If I was going through our "exit strategy" again but constrained to staying urban, the single most important thing I'd do would be to reduce or eliminate debt, with learning gardening as a secondary priority.

While it's romantic to think about alternative energy or farming in an urban context, the reality is it is much cheaper and easier to save a kilowatt than capture one. Reducing energy use, reducing waste, and making the most of what you have are all rewarding strategies for a more sustainable existence."

I should add that John ran the thought-provoking Kiwi Foo seminar on sustainable living that I referred to in the post.

Living off the land, city slicker style

Does living sustainably mean that you must live in the country, grow your own food, and power your house with energy generated by wind, water and sunlight?

I thought about this during a Kiwi Foo Camp 09 session on the "nuts and bolts of sustainability". The presenter described how he and his wife were living sustainably on a small Wairarapa farm. It sounded bucolic and innovative, and it's the image of sustainable living that many of us have.

But for most people, who live in cities and towns, it's a dream. Living on a small farm or "lifestyle block" is only possible for a small number of people who already own land in the country or can afford to buy land and invest time and money in it. It's not a realistic option for city slickers.

Real advances in sustainable living have to be made in urban areas, where most of us live and where most of the world's food, water, energy and other resources is ultimately consumed. Part of this involves imagining and promoting what sustainable urban lifestyles might look like. There's no one answer but myriad practical possibilities, big and small.

At one level urban sustainable living might involve simple things, like buying less consumer goods, walking more, growing herbs and veges in the backyard, composting kitchen scraps, and catching the bus or train to work. At another level it might involve quite "radical" ideas - like "urban farming", resilient communities, distributed energy generation, and making productive use of the "inner wasteland". It would certainly involve politicians, policy-makers and town planners creating frameworks which assist and encourage people and communities to live sustainably.

Some things I learnt at Kiwi Foo

I was at Kiwi Foo Camp 09 over the weekend, among a group of technologists, inventors, entrepreneurs, designers, media people, bloggers, advocates and many others. Here are some compelling ideas that I came across in seminars and discussions:

• Economy - with the global credit crunch and diminishing natural resources, people will be crying out for technology that helps them do things cheaper, faster and more efficiently.

• Community participation - Thinksmall, an online platform which aims to encourage New Zealanders to debate and develop solutions to issues that are vexing them. The platform is pitched at national issues, but could be used by communities as a tool for discussing and organizing on local concerns - anything from rates hikes and vandalism to local government spending on costly "legacy" projects (e.g., new stadiums).

• Microfinancing - P2P (peer to peer) lending systems, where investors can lend directly to people who want money (e.g., for a business start-up, to buy a house) and choose different types of risk to suit their lending approaches.

• Sustainable living in cities - I've written before about the "inner urban wasteland" - vacant lots, grassed road verges, backyards, old industrial sites, bare rooftops - and how we could productively use these spaces, e.g., for growing food and generating energy. At a session on sustainable living, one of the participants suggested growing fruit and nut trees on road verges, thereby providing food, shade and soaking up carbon dioxide.

• People with disabilities - encouraging government, business and communities to actively tap the skills and expertise of disabled people, rather than treating them as a drain on the public purse. This is one aspect of developing a resilient society and economy.

I'll be writing more about these interesting ideas - and others - over the next couple of weeks.

Malignant 4GW force or powerful grassroots movement?

What say 4GW guru William S Lind has got it dead wrong? What say the return of veterans from Iraq and Afghanistan turns into a good thing - if, as JC and Ralph suggest, those who've seen foreign war, poverty and anarchy decide that their communities and countries won't suffer the same fate?

To take this a step further - what would happen if demobilized vets, with their experience of discipline and initiative, and their expertise in providing security, local governance, construction and development in counterinsurgency situations - put this to good use in their own communities?

Professional soldiers usually come from poorer communities - urban slums, strip-mall suburbs and rural towns which are crime-plagued, poverty-stricken, and hard hit by industrial and agricultural decay and economic slumps. Instead of being left to their own devices, these men and women could be mobilized and resourced to organize their communities, around concepts of communal safety, resilience and sustainability. They would take a lead in local representation, crime-prevention, localizing energy, food and water supply, and nurturing community cooperation and assistance.

Instead of the malignant 4GW force of Lind's fevered imagination, these men and women could be the vanguard of a grassroots movement for community regeneration.

*"Great War on Terror"